RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.010673
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.140133
Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	0.00487
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.009009
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.136503
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.094743
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	0.006248
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.009584
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.001655
Feb 1, 2021 02:49PM	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.203679
Oct 1, 2020 02:37PM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.112629