Confirmed previous forecast
0.230281
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Definitions |
New Prediction
Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 4, 2023 01:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 4, 2023 to Feb 4, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
China has been very strongly committed to its zero Covid policy
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Covid may be completely eradicated from China by that point
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
There are frequent border clashes at a small scale, which could lead to 25 casualties
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China is currently dealing with multiple conflicts and may not want to draw attention to the Sino-Indian border.
Files
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New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2022 01:11AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 21, 2022 to Nov 21, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Russia will not want to risk any intervention from the US.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They may want to escalate the war in Ukraine
Files