RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.068285
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.375637
Jan 04, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.057661
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	0.083071
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	-0.012267
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.240161
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?	0.092236
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?	0.054423

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