Forecasted Questions
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 09:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 09:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 1% | +89% | -1% |
| No | 10% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 99% | -89% | +1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 8% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 92% | +5% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 99% | -1% | +0% |