Confirmed previous forecast
0.028333
Relative Brier Score
53
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 11 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025
75%
(0%)
No
Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
3%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(+10%)
Yes
Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025
65%
(-10%)
No
Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025
Increasing attacks from both sides seem to point to open conflict sooner rather than later.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-6%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(-19%)
Odesa
Limits on Russian offensive capabilities make these unlikely to occur.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 6, 2024 to Sep 6, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Sep 6, 2024 to Sep 6, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Israel has indicated that air strikes are a precursor to ground action.