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Accuracy Rank

ScottEastman

Scott Eastman
About:

I'm an American living in Romania with some background about Ukraine, the Middle East, the EU, epidemiology, and AI development and risks. I've been forecasting since 2013 (Superforecaster) and involved in several IARPA forecasting projects, as well as work for Metaculus and Swift Centre. My original training and work was in documentary and fine art photography. I spend three months of the year in Oregon.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 8%
No 95% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 92%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 10:21PM UTC
(3 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 10:45PM UTC
(3 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 0% 4%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 1%
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