Russia's current political status would imply that a successful moon mission would be a high value propaganda effort to display technological prowess despite Western sanctions. I would give 80 % probability to the mission being launched, however I don't believe that the outcome will qualify the Resolution Criteria.
Firstly, while propaganda victories are in high demand for Moscow the long-term outcome of a permanent (even unmanned) moon base would be too massive a cost for the destitute state.
Secondly, Russian modus operandi allows for any and all corners to be cut in national efforts to ensure a propaganda victory. In the current environment of isolation the scientific machine is in full control of state officials, who have neither technical expertise or care for scientific goals over political ones.
Thirdly Russia's reliance of Chinese technology gives Beijing a golden opportunity to import valuable Russian experience from space operations in exchange
Why do you think you're right?
My forecast is based on the following observations and I will divide them under Dysprosium Supply and Demand.
Demand
Dysprosium is used in a wide variety of important technological components. In previous years the fears of rare earth shortages led to multiple innovations that cut down their use in most sectors, however I forecast that this trend of declining rare metal demand will reverse in the short term as onshoring and friendshoring of technology will bring new buyers of dysprosium ores and products to market.
Supply
International supply of Dysprosium is dominated by China and Myanmar, which are aware that they will lose their dominant position on the market as the fierce exploration efforts are now bearing fruit around the world.
In the near term China still has control over international supply of Dysprosium and with worsening political climate and a history of using rare earth export as a political tool (as in https://www.technologyreview.com/2015/02/25/169038/what-happened-to-the-rare-earths-crisis/). With lower economic output China is also not in position to undercut prices to keep foreign competitors out of business, as western political bodies are now more open to assisting their domestic producers of strategically important raw materials.
Hence shifts in Chinese policy and Myanmar political stability are not enough to bring a prolonged price shift, but their current market control will translate to high likelihood of short price spikes.
In particular any Chinese rare earth trade restriction would immediately hit international news outlets. Most high link value articles and information about dysprosium are from 2011 - 2012 period of rare earth shortage scare, compounding on the news value and making dysprosium futures a prime "meme stock", intentionally or unintentionally.
Another likely scenario are Chinese dysprosium trade restrictions against individual countries, or as a tool to protect a country's domestic production. Both cases would lead to a price spike, but also a longer term price increase in the affected market.
In conclusion I forecast dypsrosium price to exceed 1000 USD/kg during the coming year, but only as a short term price spike or in a one or more local markets.
Why might you be wrong?
With constant technical innovations reducing the demand per product and China working to hold on to market dominance in rare earths it is in both Chinese companies and Beijing's interests to project an image of a reliable supplier and maintaining a price level that is difficult to meet by competitors.
If Chinese-American political relations do not meet any crises leading to trade restrictions or tariff rounds this year dysprosium prices will likely see only modest rise due to increased demand of technology manufacturing.