The recent developments in Russia regarding Prigodzin take a lot of Russian resources. This has made chances of Ukraine better
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Turkey wants to keep Russia as an ally and will push the NATO membership forward as long as they can. The pressure starts to get tougher every day, though, so it is still plausible.
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U.S. is dominating in semiconductor-using tech and it seems unlikely to change this much this fast. China, Vietnam, India and Europe could take some of the share in the longer run.
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Why do you think you're right?
Society is having difficulties adapting to generative AI and to some, banning seems like a solution. However, regulation is often slow and governments haven't even fully grasped AI yet, so 10/2023 is a tight schedule.
Why might you be wrong?
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I consider the likelihood of this happening at some point quite high, but 6 months is a short period. If the question was next 10 years, I might have answered up to 60%
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The counter-offensive has started slowly and Russia has strong fortifications, so I would be surprised if Ukraine made a lot of progress, but likely they will make some advancements. However, I do not think Russia in the near future has resources or even the will to attempt capturing more land than they currently occupy.
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There is a quite high possibility over the next 5-10 years, as China wants to control the territory it considers its own, chips are important strategically, and they also want to show power both internally and externally. However, this happening in the next 1 day has a likelihood of very close to 0