The recent developments in Russia regarding Prigodzin take a lot of Russian resources. This has made chances of Ukraine better
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(+4%)
Less than 7%
21%
(+7%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
63%
(-7%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
5%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
3%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 22%
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
Turkey wants to keep Russia as an ally and will push the NATO membership forward as long as they can. The pressure starts to get tougher every day, though, so it is still plausible.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
2023 Q2
2%
2023 Q3
2%
2023 Q4
4%
2024 Q1
5%
2024 Q2
U.S. is dominating in semiconductor-using tech and it seems unlikely to change this much this fast. China, Vietnam, India and Europe could take some of the share in the longer run.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
47%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Society is having difficulties adapting to generative AI and to some, banning seems like a solution. However, regulation is often slow and governments haven't even fully grasped AI yet, so 10/2023 is a tight schedule.
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Why might you be wrong?
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 19, 2023 08:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jun 19, 2023 to Dec 19, 2023
I consider the likelihood of this happening at some point quite high, but 6 months is a short period. If the question was next 10 years, I might have answered up to 60%
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 7%
14%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
70%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
8%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
4%
More than or equal to 22%
The counter-offensive has started slowly and Russia has strong fortifications, so I would be surprised if Ukraine made a lot of progress, but likely they will make some advancements. However, I do not think Russia in the near future has resources or even the will to attempt capturing more land than they currently occupy.
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There is a quite high possibility over the next 5-10 years, as China wants to control the territory it considers its own, chips are important strategically, and they also want to show power both internally and externally. However, this happening in the next 1 day has a likelihood of very close to 0