Temu, and other creepy data scraping techniques, better language translation thanks to non-Chinese tech companies using AI for replacing human interpretors, and proliferation of cloud hosted social media, document management and personal note-taking platforms.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 12, 2024 09:12AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
Yes
Oct 12, 2024 to Oct 12, 2025
0%
No
Oct 12, 2024 to Oct 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Who gets there first - I could be assuming certain career paths would be less attractive in China than finance.
Files
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 23, 2024 10:14AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
15%
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
They're already doing it. They've been adopting the same geographic strategic positions as in the previous war against Lebanon.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I've dropped my certainty level
Why might you be wrong?
The measurement of what makes a successful competitor on this leaderboard is probably extremely biased. So even if China has better models, they're probably not using the same metrics for comparison. If they actually want to "win" this trophy, they will