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New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(-30%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(-5%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Russia will need to preserve its most expensive and effective weaponry for the war on Ukraine. Additionally the training costs to make these weapon systems effective for Iran would be exceedingly high.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15%
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is more likely to provide defensive weapons than offensive weapons, so as not to disturb Iran's neighbors and regional rivals.
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Why might you be wrong?
Russia's diplomats may have little to no say in this decision, so any potentially restraining factors could be irrelevant.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 1, 2023 12:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Aug 1, 2023 to Feb 1, 2024
Israel will monitor Iran's nuclear capability closely and will not permit unchecked development.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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