Forecasted Questions
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 11:34AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 27, 2024 11:34AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 22% | 12% | +10% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 48% | 55% | -7% | +2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 27% | 31% | -4% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 27, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 26% | 19% | +7% | +2% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 63% | 72% | -9% | +0% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 10% | 8% | +2% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 27, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 10% | 5% | +5% | +1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 27% | 26% | +1% | -3% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 29% | 27% | +2% | +1% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 25% | 29% | -4% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 9% | 13% | -4% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | 28% | +1% | +2% |
| No | 71% | 72% | -1% | -2% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 12:08PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 12:08PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 12:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 12:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |