Confirmed previous forecast
6.166262
Relative Brier Score
39
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I feel like they can do it soon, the infrastructure is there as we can see from Chat GPT
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There might be too many issues to figure out before the launch (bugs, user-friendliness,....etc)
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 26, 2023 11:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 26, 2023 to Mar 26, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Less than 200
40%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files