I don't think the spread of digital provenance will be sufficient to support that business model that soon. Beggar's can't be choosers, and while legit news services will prefer digital provenance, they will still look for, and accept, other forms of corroboration and verification for the next several years.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be underestimating the likely prevalence of the tech (I think it will be low), or the power of the market forces pushing legit news services to adopt it (which I also think will be low).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm pretty uncertain. Three things would have to happen for this event to take place:
1) An actor would have to launch a large language model disinformation campaign (pretty likely, but not certain)
2) Meta would have to detect it (reasonably likely, but not certain)
3) Meta would have to report it (if detected, very likely, I think).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm pretty uncertain. Three things would have to happen for this event to take place:
1) An actor would have to launch a large language model disinformation campaign (pretty likely, but not certain)
2) Meta would have to detect it (reasonably likely, but not certain)
3) Meta would have to report it (if detected, very likely, I think).If I'm wrong, it would likely be because I've mis-estimated the underlying likelihoods of these three-sub events.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is little incentive for social media platforms to adopt digital provenance beyond a desire to appear to be doing a right thing. However, the question only requires a limited roll-out, so one or more platforms might do a limit roll-out in response to limited numbers of users who want such a thing in order to show responsiveness and appear concerned.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same reason: while there is little incentive for social media platforms to adopt digital provenance beyond a desire to appear to be doing a right thing. However, the question only requires a limited roll-out, so one or more platforms might do a limit roll-out in response to limited numbers of users who want such a thing in order to show responsiveness and appear concerned. Such an adoption might be sooner or more extensive than I imagine.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
Less than 4 million
51%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
5%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
I don't think this is likely to break the shoulder and actually become common. There are, however, always a bunch of tech-heads who adopt new cool things.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong in two ways/directions: rate of adoption could be slower or faster than I anticipate; I could be wrong about eventual overall adoption (I do not think this will ever be adopted by a significant fraction of internet users).
Files
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
93%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Two reasons: detection is tricky, and social media platforms have limited incentive to discriminate authentic from inauthentic users or content.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Possibility of regulation making it a requirement, or built-in AI authoring tools on the platforms that include a boilerplate AI authoring message.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?