Israel is dealing with a lot of conflict in the region right now, the Houthis could capitalize on this as an opportunity to execute a strike of some sort.
-0.02523
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 4, 2024 04:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Dec 4, 2023 to Jun 4, 2024
50%
No
Dec 4, 2023 to Jun 4, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This would cause a lot of pushback for the Houthis, may not be worth the risks for them so they could decide not to engage.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2023 09:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Nov 1, 2023 to Dec 1, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
The conflict just started, neither side appears willing to back down/come to an agreement.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's international concern over this conflict, so this pressure may push them to find a resolution
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
Yes
59%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Congress is looking to increase regulation on AI and AI-generated content, so it is possible that these companies will be required to do so or will do so on their own to avoid government oversight.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Discussion on this topic is ongoing and these companies may feel that they do not need to or that labeling AI-generated posts would be harmful
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-7%)
Yes
89%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Iran is in negotiations regarding nuclear enrichment and previously was not able to enrich to this degree. Doing so would worsen sanctions from the US and other actors, so it's unlikely that they would
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Iran wants a nuclear weapons program, they could bear the sanctions to see it through due to the strength/security it would give.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Declarations of war are rare and it would take a lot for that to happen, proxy conflicts are more likely.
Why might you be wrong?
Tensions in the middle east are high and conflict is always a possibility, Iran seeking regional power so could be willing to declare war if it poses to be beneficial.