North Korea launched over 90 ballistic and other missiles in 2022, more than in other years, and started 2023 with another launch making chances more likely but no clear reasons yet.
1.791503
Relative Brier Score
68
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No one can predict what is going through the regime in North Korea and or in Kim Jong-un's mind.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Unlikely EU will remove the sanctions
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 3, 2023 10:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 3, 2023 to Feb 3, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 200
85%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 3, 2023 10:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 3, 2023 to Feb 3, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Dependent on the Turkish elections taking place and what will come out of it. Hungary is also holding up Sweden's admission.