austin-dahmer

Austin Dahmer
About:

Senior National Security Policy Analyst for the Defense Science Board (SAIC). MA candidate in Security Studies at Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service. Former US Marine intelligence and infantry officer. US Naval Academy, BS International Relations and Economics, 2014. The views represented here are solely my own, and do not necessarily reflect official policy or position of the US Government.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? 0.5084
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.008951
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? 0.437344
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.665775
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? 0.003604
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? 0.003763
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.120729
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.10113
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020? 0.186879
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? 1.128782
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? 0.031664
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020? 0.348136
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020? 0.147079
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020? -0.002813
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020? 0.0
Jul 10, 2020 02:04PM UTC Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020? 1.077278
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020? 0.08582
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