awinkleman

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Forecasted Questions

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 08:24PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 44%
No 75% 56%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 08:30PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 85% Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2026 Jan 7, 2025 7%
No 15% Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2026 Jan 7, 2025 93%
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