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New Prediction
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Jul 14, 2024 04:37PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
0%
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Huawei's technology is meaningfully differentiated with equipment that doesn't correspond to the splits in the ORAN model. It's possible that ORAN could eventually acquire enough market share to make it an interesting market within China, but I don't think that'll be complete before the end of 2025.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 14, 2024 04:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-5%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
80%
(+5%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Updating downwards because I don't have such a strong reason to disagree with consensus. Still believe that a small regional war is underrated for domestic reasons, and Hezbollah is a more likely a "safe" target than Iran.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 14, 2024 04:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(-12%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
75%
(+12%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Updating downwards, I don't have a reason to disagree strongly with consensus here but I do think a regional blowup is being underrated.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 14, 2024 04:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(+2%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
89%
(-2%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Slightly higher due to conflict with Israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Yes
93%
(+1%)
No
Updating down because the year is going on
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 14, 2024 07:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(-5%)
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
75%
(+5%)
No
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
While unlikely overall, there are no major barriers to a ground offense against Hezbollah, and the political temperature in Israeli is still running high.
Files
its almost may