Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 30, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 5% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 93% | 95% | -2% | +1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 22% | +36% | +7% |
| No | 42% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 78% | -36% | -7% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 06:41PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 06, 2024 06:41PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 12% | 3% | +9% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 38% | 4% | +34% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 13% | 1% | +12% | +1% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 41% | 1% | +40% | +0% |