Confirmed previous forecast
0.4543
Relative Brier Score
49
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 101 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
no reason to leave. it already has de facto
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
95%
(+15%)
No
uted to the unexpected result? Tip:
Iran has no reason to leave the accord. It's not really following it anywayWhy might you be wrong? (optional)
If your forecast turns out to be wrong, why? What factors may have contributed to the unexpected result? Tip:Files
