According to the South China Morning Post, in 2020, China had already managed to launch more satellites into Earth orbit than the United States. Given the worsening of the pandemic, China has not been able to repeat the feat. I believe that, with the end of the pandemic, China will once again bet on increasing satellite launches.
1.154353
Relative Brier Score
2
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Answer
86%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A worsening of the pandemic or the escalation of the War in Ukraine could interfere with this forecast.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Beacause, in fact, it already happened, as we can read: North Korea tests new nuclear-capable underwater drone
Why might you be wrong?
An escalation of conflict between Ukraine and Russia could delay testing.
This doesn't seem to count as a nuclear test, as it doesn't involve the detonation of a nuclear device.
From the article: "The cruise missiles were tipped with a "test warhead simulating a nuclear warhead""