butterfly

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 1.670887
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 1.320969
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.707082
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? 0.135997
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.308976
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.676677
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.38087
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? 0.228599
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.814228
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? -0.133592
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? 0.057155
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? -0.000902
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.169488
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.134132
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? 0.250968
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? 1.248084
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? -0.09363
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? -0.099821
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? 0.015613
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? -0.00881
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