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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
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Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 6, 2024 04:23AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Mar 6, 2024 to Sep 6, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
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Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Assassination or revolution is possible, but it's overwhelmingly unlikely that anything will unseat this entrenched ruler. Having recently killed off prominent political opponents with no repercussions, it's even more doubtful that anyone will attempt to usurp his position or organize any significant resistance.
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Why do you think you're right?
Iran is content to let Israel's ham-handed handling of the Gaza campaigns reduce that nation's credibility on the world stage. They will continue undermining Israel through proxy groups and diplomatic sabotage but will put fewer of their advisors in harm's way. Israel won't have the political capital to strike targets inside Iran.
Why might you be wrong?
Other destabilizing factors in the region escalate multiple conflicts and corner Israel. In a last-ditch effort to unify the various conflicts into a larger, world-scale, two-sided paradigm, Israel will issue strikes in Iran to draw battle lines.