RAND Forecasting Initiative

2022 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.128838
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.011102
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	0.039923