RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	1.063671
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.016072
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.073777
Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	-0.068225
Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	0.416568
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.00122
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.129281
Jan 4, 2021 01:49PM	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.349274
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.159911
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.354736
Oct 1, 2020 06:17PM	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.754026
Oct 1, 2020 02:37PM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.347883
Oct 1, 2020 04:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.000953
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	-0.004483
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.039872
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	0.159566
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	-0.018172