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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
Why do you think you're right?
Quantum computers are our future and can decipher more data than classical computers 'could imagine'. Still, at the moment, they are in the early-developing stage, and their power has not yet reached the level of satisfactory performance.
The range of quantum computer possibilities is a mystery to the developers, similar to deep learning's 'black boxes' of neural networks and even beyond that. We can follow a standard tech race between the countries and observe the first steps with quantum computers - it turns out to be more advanced, which increases private and public sector investments in this field.
However, at this stage, the number of qubits in processors is still low, and developers deal with bugs, trials and errors. Besides, qubit production is diverse, and hard to collate processors and their performances. The technology is at an early stage of development and has low CPU performance.
The list of Significant Cyber Incidents shows that hackers usually use well-known attacks, such as DDoS attacks, malware, phishing etc. It would require much more power than quantum computers currently have to breach security or to use them to decipher data.
Hacking into a quantum computer or using it to decrypt data would require much more power than now. In 2023 we should hardly expect hackers to launch any attacks using QC to breach security or, likely - decipher the data.
Why might you be wrong?
However, because of the growth of investments and breakthroughs in the field of QC, there could be a significant augmentation already next year. Cyberattacks becoming more frequent, especially in recent years ( according to the report about Significant Cyber Incidents - over 100 per year in the last six years), the Ukrainian conflict, the usual technology race among countries and the number of inventions - all these could unexpectedly boost the development of QC. The "Harvest now - decipher later" approach could lead to stolen encrypted data now and decrypted later, at a Q-day.