This is again more of a hope than a belief
1.166244
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As it is my hope that they would do so, there are many reasons why they would not
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I find this fairly likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Always the potential that I'm wrong
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
No idea if they will do so
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No idea if they will do so
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
33%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
17%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
I'd be shocked if I was right, this is a complete guess.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am not familiar with World ID
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
More of a hope than an expectation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think these platforms will want to leverage AI and not say when they are doing so. They thrive on manipulation.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?