dimdim

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2024 Season Stats

0.0064

Relative Brier Score

15

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 15 15 15
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 0 5 5 5
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
dimdim made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (-4%)
Yes
100% (+4%)
No

not enough time left

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New Prediction

updating due to time remaining

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New Prediction
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
dimdim made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
4% (-9%)
Yes
96% (+9%)
No

less time left

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New Prediction
Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months?
dimdim made their 4th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 26, 2024 09:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95% (+5%)
Yes
Feb 26, 2024 to Aug 26, 2024
5% (-5%)
No
Feb 26, 2024 to Aug 26, 2024

updating due to new reports of rockets being fired

Files
New Prediction
Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months?
dimdim made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 26, 2024 09:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90% (+12%)
Yes
Feb 26, 2024 to Aug 26, 2024
10% (-12%)
No
Feb 26, 2024 to Aug 26, 2024
Updating due to new reports of rockets fired.
Files
New Prediction
Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months?
dimdim made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 19, 2024 07:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
78% (+48%)
Yes
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
22% (-48%)
No
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024

following the news

Files
New Prediction
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
dimdim made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 17, 2024 03:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Feb 17, 2024 to Aug 17, 2024
94%
No
Feb 17, 2024 to Aug 17, 2024

Actually striking is unlikely

Files
New Prediction
Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months?
dimdim made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 17, 2024 01:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Feb 17, 2024 to Aug 17, 2024
70%
No
Feb 17, 2024 to Aug 17, 2024

They might risk it, but not very likely

Files
New Prediction
Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?
dimdim made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 17, 2024 01:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (-9%)
Yes
Feb 17, 2024 to Mar 17, 2024
89% (+9%)
No
Feb 17, 2024 to Mar 17, 2024

Adjusting down after additional thought and consideration

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New Prediction
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
dimdim made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
13% (-7%)
Yes
87% (+7%)
No

Probably not, but with high uncertainty

Files
Files
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