Confirmed previous forecast
-0.055922
Relative Brier Score
46
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 41 | 26 | 72 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 13 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 22 | 19 | 23 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
33%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
67%
(0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(+70%)
Yes
30%
(-70%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
International pressure on Israel.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Desire to eliminate Hamas.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files