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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.02236
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 0.176678
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.007446
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.059631
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.041307
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.0796
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? -0.003988
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? 0.122547
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.012063
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.227882
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? -0.094127
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work? -0.127515
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? -0.029503
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.0
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.000745
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.000929
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.0
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.00137
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.00152
Oct 01, 2021 06:31PM UTC [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? 0.025808
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