RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.082041
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	0.034984
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.01164
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.000224
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM UTC	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	-0.109795
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.000257
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	-0.084894
Nov 09, 2022 02:00PM UTC	How many total unique AI systems will Baidu and Alibaba submit for the next round of the MLPerf benchmarking suite?	0.322376
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	-0.000558
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM UTC	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	-0.058436
Sep 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2022 and Sep 17, 2022)	0.0
Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022)	0.0
Aug 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.0
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?	-0.002614
Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022)	0.0
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	0.001678
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.140156
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	0.571265
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	0.024263
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	-0.808961

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