Israeli tanks have amassed on the Lebanese border. Israel have told the US that a ground incursion is about to happen. The Israeli defence minister is quoted as saying: "The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon."
Unless this is all a bluff (unlikely given the events of the past few weeks), we should expect a ground invasion soon. I assume this, in addition to the quote from the defence minister (and reading past softer language like 'limited incursion') will resolve this question "Yes".
Some source links via reuters:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/ (this is a live feed, so I'm not sure how well the link will age)
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https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/
Latest market-based forecast from my model: 38%. Tweaking to 34% to account for my expectations and slight deference to crowd.