emmakate

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2021 Season Stats

3.466824

Relative Brier Score

81

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 261
Comments 0 0 0 0 2
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 141
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 9
 Definitions
New Prediction

confirming

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New Prediction
On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?
emmakate made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
3%
Less than 5
62%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
35%
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 18

an initial forecast based on Ben's amazing analysis below 

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New Prediction
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
emmakate made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jan 25, 2023 10:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Dec 25, 2022 to Jan 25, 2023

confirming 

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New Prediction

confirming 

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New Prediction
New Prediction

adjusted based on news

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New Prediction

adjusted based on news

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New Prediction
What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?
emmakate made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than $5 billion
9% (+4%)
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion
87% (+27%)
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive
4% (-31%)
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than $8 billion

confirming but adjusting the weight a bit 

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New Prediction
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?
emmakate made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than $320 billion
3% (-17%)
More than $320 billion but less than or equal to $350 billion
20% (-40%)
Between $350 billion and $380 billion, inclusive
75% (+55%)
Between $380 billion and $410 billion, inclusive
2% (+2%)
More than $410 billion

following the no.1 person's forecast 

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New Prediction
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?
emmakate made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than $25 billion
9% (-1%)
More than $25 billion but less than or equal to $35 billion
87% (+7%)
Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive
4% (-6%)
Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than $55 billion

narrowing it down as the questions is closing soon

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