an initial forecast based on Ben's amazing analysis below
3.466824
Relative Brier Score
81
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 261 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Less than 5
62%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
35%
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 18
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 25, 2023 10:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 25, 2022 to Jan 25, 2023
confirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
confirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-40%)
Yes
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-30%)
Yes
adjusted based on news
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-95%)
Yes
adjusted based on news
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than $5 billion
9%
(+4%)
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion
87%
(+27%)
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive
4%
(-31%)
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than $8 billion
confirming but adjusting the weight a bit
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than $320 billion
3%
(-17%)
More than $320 billion but less than or equal to $350 billion
20%
(-40%)
Between $350 billion and $380 billion, inclusive
75%
(+55%)
Between $380 billion and $410 billion, inclusive
2%
(+2%)
More than $410 billion
following the no.1 person's forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than $25 billion
9%
(-1%)
More than $25 billion but less than or equal to $35 billion
87%
(+7%)
Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive
4%
(-6%)
Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than $55 billion
narrowing it down as the questions is closing soon
Files
confirming