RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.01437
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.329964
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	0.040127
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.000967
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	-0.000852
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.107402
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	0.028621
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?	-0.005512

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