This is a huge move by a government and only a limited number of governments would have the ability and desire to implement this so quickly.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Just a guess
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
LLMs are still so new and the ability to detect the use of LLMs is even newer, so I don't expect to see the discovery of an influence operation relying on them in any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
I haven't seen any discussions of this on any of the platforms or in the media, but who knows, maybe I'm living under a rock.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Less than 4 million
5%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Based on the current number of people subscribed to World App and the current subscription rate for World ID, I don't see them reaching 4 million subscriptions by 1 Sep of this year.
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Why might you be wrong?
The World App and World ID current user count and subscription rate posted to their websites could be inaccurate, thus skewing my calculations.
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New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
SM platforms already have extreme difficulty detecting and shutting down bot accounts, so being able to tell if posted content is generated by AI, even on real accounts, is going to pose a much bigger challenge. They will eventually begin labeling posts as potentially generated by AI, but not anytime soon.
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