Confirming previous forecast as no agreement was signed.
1.674295
Relative Brier Score
75
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 343 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 165 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 85 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Confirming my previous forecast per end of year data
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+10%)
Less than or equal to 24
0%
(-10%)
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 55
Per the current numbers, it looks like 11 were recorded.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirming previous forecast. NYT started a news provenance project in 2019.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
100%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Though the data will lot be released until 3/24, no specific news indicates that the percentage will be greater.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
IBM’s plans did not exceed 127 qubits in 2023.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
CSIS has not recorded this type of incident.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
United Airlines has not yet made such an announcement.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
The list still includes no mention of quantum and we are nearing end of year.
Files