recent average and stdev
0.506537
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Less than or equal to 24
4%
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
15%
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
60%
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
20%
More than or equal to 55
Files
Looking at the recent average, shifting up a bit to account for increased usage, then applying the standard deviation from the data, then fattening the tails a bit