As long as the war continues and there is not a clear Ukraine victory, defined as taking back Crimea, there is little chance that Vladimir Putin will be ousted from power. Although I believe eventually Ukraine will claim victory, given the resource constraints of the west, and the willingness of Putin to put everything on the line to keep territory, I see that we are in for a war that will last longer than May 2024. Bottomline, I do not see by the May 2024 deadline that Ukraine will recover Crimea, and therefore although weakened I see Putin in Power. I put at it 30 %, given the unknowns, that can occur, as Ukraine continues to make advances on the battlefield. Even if it is at a slow pace.
0.040252
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Why do you think you're right?
As long as the war continues and there is not a clear Ukraine victory, defined as taking back Crimea, there is little chance that Vladimir Putin will be ousted from power. Although I believe eventually Ukraine will claim victory, given the resource constraints of the west, and the willingness of Putin to put everything on the line to keep territory, I see that we are in for a war that will last longer than May 2024. Bottomline, I do not see by the May 2024 deadline that Ukraine will recover Crimea, and therefore although weakened I see Putin in Power. I put at it 15 %, given the unknowns, that can occur, as Ukraine continues to make advances on the battlefield. Even if it is at a slow pace.
Why might you be wrong?