Confirmed previous forecast
0.000441
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Putin seems to have a firm grasp on power. Most of his political opponents and opposition have disappeared or have had accidents. With no real opponents to foment and direct dissent, things remain at the status quo.
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Why might you be wrong?
If Putin is assassinated by a foreign or domestic agent, then he would effectively be out of power. However, with his myriad of purported body doubles, his legacy may continue without the rest of the world being none the wiser.
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