0.559681
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
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New Prediction
Well, when the war in Ukraine first broke out (the war that is on-going), there were rumours that Vladimir Putin had died and that a body double was being deployed. I am not sure how accurate those news items were.
Next, I do not follow the updates regularly. But General Petareus posts detailed updates on Linkedin. This was my primary means of staying up to date with what was going on in Ukraine. I have not done this for months.
If Putin is still alive, then I think he will maintain his hold. What has been going on in Putin's mind and those of his direct supporters is the key and deeper question.
Because your question was very specific, hence I will refrain from commenting further. But I am also not an expert in Russian studies.
Thank you.