If so, it'll either be a small country with minimal global impact, or it will be China who don't want the competition.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
57%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
Yes
33%
No
Credibility is important to these organizations, and manipulated images are on the rise. The real question is about the reliability and implementation of digital provenance.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
It's definitely gonna happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
I have high uncertainty about this. It seems possible, but only there is both enough to allow reliable provenance to be recorded, and financial incentives to do so.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
Less than 4 million
45%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
This seems like a hassle without any immediate benefit.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Posts obviously WILL be increasingly written by AI, and people will want to know about them.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Twitter and Meta don't prioritize users' best interests, and they may be disincentivized to do this.
Files