Confirmed previous forecast
0.434972
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
MS wants to keep MSR Asia open because access to top Chinese AI talent is essential for MS to be competitive in this field over the long run. The growth of the industrialization and digitization of the Chinese economy will make it the largest market for AI technologies. This market will driven sustainable investment for AI research in the future. This is less true in the US where AI research will need more government subsidies to remain competitive. MS clearly wants to sell its AI technology in the largest AI market and keeping MSR Asia open is the only way to do that..
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Why might you be wrong?
The US government will see MSR Asia as a net technology transfer from US to China. Short term that might be true, but long term it is not and so far US actions on technology 'containment' of China are driven by short term thinking. MS will expect substantial government subsidies for AI research if it is forced to close MSR Asia. The mixed results of US technology 'containment' of China that has already been implemented might not dissuade the US government of forcing its closure.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Comment
You should include the question: What is the probability that Israel will annex Gaza in the next 18 months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15%
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
The chance Russia will deliver missile systems to Iran is actually at least 60%, however the delivery will be stealthy and the Infer-Pub criteria for confirmation will only be about 20%.
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Why might you be wrong?
If Iran successfully defends against an Israeli attack it will be obvious they deployed a Russian missile defense systems.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The only threat to Putin is his own health. At 71, 90% is about the chance Putin will remain healthy enough to continue to be President.
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Why might you be wrong?
A sudden collapse of the Russian military in Ukraine would quickly lead to Putin's removal.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Less than 7%
3%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
11%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
23%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
The status quo will prevail, but Russian advances are more likely than Ukrainian.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine might become more successful disrupting Russian supply lines with more advances NATO-supplied missiles.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Fighter jets are too vulnerable to Russian air defense systems, just as Russian jets are vulnerable to Ukrainian air defense.
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