hirsch-sw

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? -0.378927
    Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.313534
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? 0.272715
    Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.033758
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.000028
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? 0.043472
    Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? -0.010516
    Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.051879
    Jan 3, 2023 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023) 0.000774
    Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) 0.004267
    Nov 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022) 0.000135
    Oct 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022) 0.000553
    Sep 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022) 0.000335
    Aug 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022) 0.000426
    Jul 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022) 0.00056
    Jun 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022) 0.000465
    May 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022) 0.001393
    Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) 0.006884
    Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) 0.323442
    Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.027745
     
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