SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

ideal-lake-56

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 6
Comments 0 0 0 0 6
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 6
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I think the UK is headed this way
Files
Why might you be wrong?
might not make the deadline
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I think one of these three will soonere rather than later (probably BBC)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
might not have the capability or technology by 2024
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I think this has already occured
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Meta has layed off some of their employees in this space so their reports might be less robust
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I think they will eventually get there in 24 +
Files
Why might you be wrong?
thye might be ahead of the curve
Files
New Prediction
ideal-lake-56
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
80%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
It's worldwide so hitting 6 million users shouldn't be hard.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might still be lack of trust in the system
Files
New Badge
ideal-lake-56
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
ideal-lake-56
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I think US congress will pressure tech companies to start labeling posts and doing more in the cognitive security realm.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't think they will start doing in prior to 1 June 2024
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username