I think one of these three will soonere rather than later (probably BBC)
5.178642
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
might not have the capability or technology by 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think this has already occured
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Meta has layed off some of their employees in this space so their reports might be less robust
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think they will eventually get there in 24 +
Files
Why might you be wrong?
thye might be ahead of the curve
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
80%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
It's worldwide so hitting 6 million users shouldn't be hard.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might still be lack of trust in the system
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think US congress will pressure tech companies to start labeling posts and doing more in the cognitive security realm.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't think they will start doing in prior to 1 June 2024
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?