Close to a mortal lock with not much credible opposition
0.270764
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still far enough away that something crazy could happen. Could get assassinated
Files
Why do you think you're right?
100 is high for Brazil based on the last few years. The deaths will primarily be driven by riots, and probably by a small number of particularly explosive riots. With the upcoming run-off election, there's a chance of serious violence, but there's also a chance that the added international spotlight will soften the danger. So the baseline is well below 100, but the upwards pressures are very strong.
Why might you be wrong?
This really is close to a toss up at 45% likelihood of over 100. The obvious forces that could push it over the edge are riots surrounding the run-off election and Inauguration Day later this winter. There's also a chance of a particularly deadly riot showing up from sports or any other slightly more surprising source.