RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.009499
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.02789
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.074476
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.00032
Nov 15, 2022 01:01PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Dec 2022	-0.003166
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.001094
Oct 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Nov 2022	-0.008569
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.05032

jaljal