AI is estimated to require 10 times more computing power than a regular search engine, so 2 months sounds like a quick timeline for that to happen.
0.716919
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Microsoft has significant resources to put toward this, and AI develops quickly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
North Korea has conducted several tests lately, including missile tests near South Korea. This could be building to a more significant nuclear test.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Heightened tensions elsewhere in the globe could make this kind of test less likely, especially with the U.S. and China at odds.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
April 1 is two months away, and there are no indications that China is preparing a significant assault in the next few weeks
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The tensions between the U.S. and China over recent surveillance activities could contribute.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
China recently updated their policies surrounding COVID, but they have maintained a commitment to the overall zero COVID initiative. It does not seem that they will update them so significantly as to end zero COVID by the end of this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's always the possibility of change, perhaps if cases drastically decrease in the coming month, however I find this unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The United States has shown a strong commitment to the defense of Taiwan in recent months, and are likely to respond harshly to any action against Taiwanese sovereignty; as such, an action as described would create a much larger conflict very quickly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Xi Jinping has been recently performing actions to show his consolidation of power in the Chinese Government; it is unlikely he will attempt to show force over Taiwan, but it is possible in this period.
Files
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Why do you think you're right?
Considering the United States' unwillingness to send jets and the difficulty of even sending Leopard 2 tanks, it seems unlikely that this will change in the next 2 months.
Why might you be wrong?
This depends heavily on how Putin proceeds with his aggression this year.