jgfhfvhj

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2021 Season Stats

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New Prediction
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
jgfhfvhj made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
45% (+45%)
Less than 6,000
20% (-3%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
13% (-41%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
10% (-11%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
12% (+10%)
More than or equal to 9,000

did more research

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New Prediction
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
jgfhfvhj made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 6,000
23%
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
54%
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
21%
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
2%
More than or equal to 9,000

just a random guess

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jgfhfvhj earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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jgfhfvhj earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

because that's what my brain told me

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Why might you be wrong?

I actually cannot predict the future

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